Russian roulette: Trump bites the bullet with Putin in bid to survive US midterms

With US fuel prices soaring weeks before the midterm elections, US President Donald Trump turned to a most unlikely supplier for relief. Russia. Moscow, which Washington has sanctioned for years over its war in Ukraine, is now being allowed to supply diesel to the US and global markets under a temporary licence issued by the Treasury Department.The decision came after a telephone conversation between Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The White House said the move will help bring down fuel costs for American farmers, truckers and families. But critics, including several Republicans, argue that the deal risks putting money into Moscow's hands while doing little to ease prices for American consumers.The timing is politically sensitive as Americans are preparing to elect a new Congress on November 3, and the cost of living remains a major concern.For Trump, the political calculation appears straightforward.

If Russian supplies arrive quickly and in sufficient quantities, they could help ease fuel prices and give his party a political boost. If deliveries fall short or prices remain high, the administration could end up granting Moscow significant economic relief without delivering much for American consumers.How much difference can Russian diesel make?Diesel prices averaged $6.28 a gallon on October 11, up 71% from a year earlier.

The American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks fuel prices, put the average at $6.33 on October 16.The impact extends well beyond motorists because diesel also powers the lorries that transport goods, tractors used by farmers and cargo vessels that move products around the world. When diesel becomes more expensive, the cost of transporting food and other essentials rises, eventually feeding into household bills.Farm-state Republicans had pressed the White House to act, with Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa and others calling for a ban on fuel exports to protect domestic supplies.

Trump initially backed the idea, but the White House later ruled it out. The administration subsequently turned to Russian diesel.In announcing the deal, Trump said bringing down prices for American farmers, ranchers and truckers was his highest priority.According to Trump's announcement, Russia would supply approximately 2.24 million barrels immediately, followed by 3.73 million barrels the next month, with subsequent supplies expected to roughly double.Russia said on October 21 that it would send its first diesel shipment to the US the following day, carrying 40,000 metric tonnes of fuel.

More shipments are planned, although questions remain over whether Moscow can deliver enough diesel to make a significant difference to prices.The figures, however, offer a sense of the deal's limitations. The second shipment, spread over a month, would amount to around 124,000 barrels a day. Kpler, a market intelligence firm, estimates the global diesel shortfall at about one million barrels a day.

The planned shipment would therefore cover only around one-eighth of that gap.And there is also no guarantee that Russia can deliver the promised volumes. The International Energy Agency has said Russian diesel production has fallen by about 30 per cent, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries contributing to the squeeze.Rachel Ziemba, an analyst specialising in economics and geopolitics, said the measure was unlikely to make a significant difference to the global diesel market in the near term.

Kpler's Michelle Brouhard has also warned that Russia's ability to supply additional barrels remains uncertain.Even if Russian diesel reaches the market, lower wholesale prices may not immediately translate into cheaper fuel for Americans. Refining capacity, transportation costs and the time required for deliveries could affect how quickly consumers see any relief.A lifeline for MoscowWhile the benefit to American consumers is still unclear, the decision could offer Russia a more immediate advantage by opening a route to sell fuel that sanctions had restricted.The Treasury licence remains valid until April 7, 2027, making it significantly longer than the usual 30-day sanctions waivers.

It is the first diesel waiver since the start of the Ukraine war to extend beyond that standard period.Putin had said days before the announcement that Russia had ample diesel supplies but was struggling to sell them abroad because of sanctions. News agency Reuters reported that his envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, had visited Washington the previous month seeking licences covering major Russian oil companies.Dmitriev welcomed the Treasury notice, saying Russian-American cooperation on diesel and energy would benefit the world.

He later described the broader sanctions waiver as a historic moment.The move was followed by a broader sanctions waiver. On October 16, Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs provided for under the newly enacted Graham Act, certifying that the decision was in the national interest.The waiver suspended new sanctions and potential tariffs under the law, including penalties targeting countries that purchase Russian energy.

India and China were among the countries that could have faced additional trade restrictions. The White House argued that enforcing the measures would obstruct efforts to negotiate an end to the war.Together, the decisions marked a sharp shift from Trump's earlier approach. Last year, his administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil.

On October 2, Trump and other G7 leaders had also pledged to maintain pressure on Moscow.A bipartisan group of US senators has since warned that easing restrictions would not serve American interests and would help finance Russia's war against Ukraine.Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who learnt about the diesel deal after it had been finalised, called it unfair and dishonest, describing it as a sign of weakness.

Trump responded by suggesting that Ukraine needed a new pre…