No regime change, no victory? Trump's Iran endgame & Netanyahu's mission
The war against Iran was never just about its nuclear programme. Even before American and Israeli forces launched their military campaign, Donald Trump was encouraging Iranians to rise against their government, promising that "help is on its way".Now, nearly nine months into the confrontation, the US president has made his ambition even clearer. He says he would consider it a defeat if Iran's ruling regime survives beyond his presidency.In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday, November 12, Trump was asked whether it would amount to a defeat if Iran's current leadership remained in power when he left office."Yes, that would be a defeat.
I would say that would be a defeat. Absolutely," he replied, according to The Times of Israel.The remarks go beyond Trump's earlier warnings about Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. They put the removal of the Islamic Republic's ruling establishment at the centre of how he measures the outcome of the confrontation, although he did not announce a new plan for achieving regime change.Trump's latest remarks follow months of increasingly explicit calls for the removal of Iran's ruling establishment.
In January, when anti-government protests spread across Iran, he publicly urged demonstrators to continue their movement and take control of government institutions."Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!" Trump wrote in a January 13 post on Truth Social. "HELP IS ON ITS WAY," he added, without explaining what assistance he was promising.Reuters reported that Trump also said he had cancelled meetings with Iranian officials until the alleged killing of protesters stopped.
His remarks drew a sharp response from Tehran, which accused Washington of encouraging political destabilisation and interfering in Iran's internal affairs.Trump made his position more explicit on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched their joint military campaign against Iran.In his address announcing the operation, Trump urged members of Iran's armed forces and security agencies to surrender, while telling the public that the opportunity to overthrow the government had arrived.Trump is not alone in seeking regime change, Israel has long wanted Iran's rulers goneFor Israel, the objective of the war against Iran goes beyond crippling its nuclear programme and destroying its missile capabilities.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long viewed the Islamic Republic as an existential threat to Israel, accusing its leadership of pursuing nuclear weapons, building a regional network of armed groups and maintaining an ideological commitment to Israel's destruction.Netanyahu made his position explicit on February 28, when Israel and the US launched their joint military campaign.
In a televised address, he said the operation was aimed at ending the threat posed by Iran's ruling establishment and creating conditions for Iranians to overthrow their government.Israel's concerns centre on four interconnected issues. The first is Iran's nuclear programme, which Netanyahu has repeatedly described as an existential danger.Israel fears that Tehran could eventually develop a nuclear weapon while retaining the ballistic missile capabilities to deliver it.The second is Iran's missile arsenal, which can threaten Israeli cities and military installations.
The third is Tehran's support for regional armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, which Israel considers part of an Iranian network of influence directed against it.The fourth is the ideological hostility of Iran's clerical leadership towards Israel. Netanyahu has repeatedly accused the Islamic Republic of seeking Israel's destruction, arguing that weakening its military capabilities without changing its political leadership would leave the underlying threat intact.Netanyahu's ambition to see the Iranian regime fall was further underlined on October 21, when he explicitly called for its overthrow and said he had given the directive to Israel's military and intelligence agencies."There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran," he said at an Israeli military officer graduation ceremony, according to The Washington Post.Yet, the biggest question for Trump and Netanyahu is whether military victory can translate into political change.Eliminating Iran's nuclear infrastructure, weakening its missile arsenal and killing senior leadership may undermine the Islamic Republic, but none of these guarantees its collapse.
Iran's powerful security apparatus and governing institutions remain formidable obstacles to an uprising or a transition of power.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.
