Republicans feel the blues as US midterms begin: Key races and faces to watch

The battle for control of the US Congress is under way, and Republicans have reason to be nervous.As millions of Americans head to polling stations on November 3, the latest surveys point to a difficult electoral environment for President Donald Trump's Republican Party, with Democrats building a substantial lead in the national congressional preference polls and gaining ground in several traditionally Republican states.The elections are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's second presidency, with voters weighing the administration's handling of the economy, the cost of living, immigration, tariffs and the war involving Iran.For Democrats, the midterms offer an opportunity to turn dissatisfaction with the White House into control of Congress.

For Republicans, the challenge is to prevent a midterm backlash from becoming a decisive repudiation of Trump's political agenda.All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are being contested.The outcome will determine not only who controls the legislative agenda for the remaining two years of Trump's presidency but also how much political leverage the president retains heading into the 2028 presidential election.The numbersThe national polling picture has shifted considerably in the Democrats' favour in the final stretch of the campaign.

A polling aggregation updated on November 3 puts the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot at approximately 8.4 percentage points.The figures represent national preferences for congressional elections, rather than predictions of individual seat outcomes. Nevertheless, a Democratic lead of this magnitude is significant, particularly given how narrow the Republican majority in the House is.(function{function e{window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e});An earlier RealClearPolling average, cited by Al Jazeera on October 31, had Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2%, an 8.2-point advantage.

An Economist/YouGov survey also found that 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House after the election, against 31% who expected Republicans to retain it.The Senate picture was less settled in that survey: 39% expected Democrats to win control, while 36% anticipated a Republican majority.Perhaps the most consequential development is the latest forecast from election analyst Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.

Its final November 3 forecast says a Democratic House majority now looks almost certain and that Democrats have also moved into a strong position to capture the Senate.The model's polling averages show Democrats ahead in practically every major Senate battleground, including Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Iowa. Even states that Republicans would ordinarily expect to defend comfortably have become competitive.The figures are especially striking in Texas, Ohio and Kansas, where Democrats are attempting to break through in states that have traditionally leaned Republican in federal elections.However, polls are not predictions.

A lead of three or four percentage points can disappear within the margin of error, and turnout, undecided voters and differences between likely-voter and registered-voter samples could still change the outcome.Why the Democrats believe a blue wave is possibleHistorically, the party occupying the White House tends to lose ground in midterm elections. The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections over the past 80 years, making the November vote particularly uncomfortable for Trump.But this election is also being shaped by a combination of issues that Democrats believe have created an unusually difficult environment for Republicans.The economy and cost of living: Affordability has emerged as a central campaign issue.

Voters are concerned about everyday expenses, energy prices, healthcare costs and the pressure on household budgets. Republicans are facing questions about whether Trump's economic policies have delivered the relief promised during the 2024 presidential campaign. Democrats have sought to connect tariffs and the Iran war to higher costs for consumers, farmers and businesses. In Iowa, for instance, the impact of tariffs and the rising cost of diesel and fertiliser have become central to the campaign.

Rural voters, traditionally an important Republican constituency, are being targeted by Democrats with an affordability message.The Iran war: The war involving Iran has become another major political vulnerability for the administration. Republicans are facing criticism over its economic consequences, particularly energy prices and the wider uncertainty surrounding American military involvement.

The issue has also created a difficult balancing act for GOP candidates who must defend the president's foreign policy while attempting to keep the focus on domestic concerns.Trump's approval ratings: Trump's popularity is another major concern for Republicans. The New York Times polling average put his approval rating at approximately 37% ahead of Election Day. Democrats have sought to turn dissatisfaction with the president into votes against Republican candidates, even in constituencies that Trump won comfortably in 2024.Early voting and turnout: More than 43 million Americans had already voted early, either in person or through returned mail ballots, five days before Election Day, according to an Associated Press analysis.

That was nearly 10 million more than at the equivalent stage before the 2022 midterms. Texas had recorded more than 6.3 million early ballots by October 28, against 4.2 million at the corresponding stage in 2022 — an increase of around 50%. Georgia had also crossed 2.5 million early ballots by October 30, surpassing its 2022 early-…