Does Trump’s 60-day tariff waiver really give relief to India?

What does US President Donald Trump’s decision to waive sanctions on Russia and tariffs on countries buying oil from Moscow really mean for India? The US decision to waive the proposed sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 is clearly aimed at securing relief for its own country.The development comes amid America’s shifting approach to Russian energy.

In a separate deal, Russia agreed to release more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel for the US and global markets, with further supplies proposed for subsequent months.While the US-Russia diesel deal primarily focused on the bilateral US-Russia relations, the tariff waiver is mostly directed to India and China. The threatened 100% tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas were due to take effect 30 days after the legislation’s approval on September 18.Also Read | The return of Middle East oil: Has Iran lost control of Strait of Hormuz & why are crude prices still up?What Trump has doneTrump invoked Section 115 of the Lindsey O.

Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 to issue the waiver. He certified that it was in the national interest of the US."I have submitted to the Congress a certification that the issuance of such a waiver is in the national interests of the United States and a report explaining the basis for the certification, consistent with section 115(b) of the Graham Act," Trump said.The waiver applies to duties under Sections 112 and 113, which authorised tariffs of up to 500% on goods that are imported from Russia and up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian-origin crude oil or natural gas.

India and China were among the countries potentially covered by the latter provision.But, Natalia Katona, Commodity Analyst sees the move as less of a gift to Moscow than an attempt to keep a lid on oil prices.“Russian crude continued to find buyers despite the tariff threat, effectively the entire November loading programme of Russian export grades has been sold off even though it could’ve been subjected to tariffs,” she tells TOI.“Enforcing the Lindsey Graham Act would risk disrupting future Russian crude flows and pushing Brent above its current level of around $110 a barrel.

With US elections approaching in early November, my reading is that Trump wants to avoid another oil-price shock at all costs,” she says.What it means for IndiaFor India, the immediate relief is for its crude supply basket and exporters. If India decided to give up Russian crude oil, its single largest supplier would have gone off the table, with no easy replacement amid Middle East tensions.

If it continued to buy Russian crude, then the 100% tariffs would have weighed on its exports to the US.Russian oil supplies to India hit a record high earlier this year when the closure of Strait of Hormuz limited the Middle East crude supplies.But recently, buying patterns have made a notable shift to the Middle East as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz ease and China begins competing for the same Russian barrels, driving up the cost of oil from Moscow.Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Commodity Market - Oil at Rystad Energy is of the view that India was strategically prepared for the Graham bill, with crude supply from the Middle East rising significantly to approximately 2.5 million bpd in September, while Russian imports declined to around 1.5 million bpd.The increase in Middle Eastern supply was supported by the continued operation of multiple logistics channels, including the Strait of Hormuz, dark fleet movements, ship-to-ship transfers, alternative Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, and the East-West Pipeline.“As a result, Middle Eastern crude exports increased to nearly 15 million barrels per day in September, strengthening India's import availability.

At the same time, higher insurance and freight costs associated with Black Sea exports, following recent attacks in the region, reduced the competitiveness of Russian crude,” Pankaj Srivastava tells TOI.(function{function e{window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e});According to the expert, with ongoing refinery expansions and strong diesel crack margins supporting exports, the waiver further improves feedstock security for Indian refiners.“This development is also constructive for global distillate markets and could provide additional support to diesel and jet fuel balances in the US and Europe,” he says.In addition, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's decision to align Murban crude pricing with Dubai Platts from 1 November is expected to enhance pricing transparency and improve procurement flexibility for Asian refiners.“Overall, the combination of the Russian waiver, increased Middle Eastern supply, the UAE's evolving position within OPEC, and the Murban pricing changes is positive for Indian refiners, strengthening their potential to increase diesel and jet fuel exports and generate economic benefits,” he adds.The caveatOne very important point that is worth noting is that this waiver is for a 60-day period.

This is clearly indicative that any relief from sanctions for Russia, and tariffs for countries like India is at best temporary as of now.A day after suspending sanctions and tariffs linked to Russian exports, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had not yet made a final decision on the issue. Friday's executive order did not specify the duration of the waiver.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, said the administration wanted additional time to assess the implications of the move.Rubio said Trump would take up to 60 days to examine the economic consequences of the Russia-related sanctions and tariffs he had waived a day earlier.Rubio said Trump had cho…