Israel elections: Can Netanyahu turn security gains into a political victory?

Three years after the October 7 attack, Benjamin Netanyahu faces a crucial electoral test over security, political accountability and the direction of Israel.Donald Trump’s endorsement and the unresolved confrontation with Iran have raised the stakes, but a divided opposition may struggle to turn its challenge into power.Israelis vote on Tuesday, October 27, in the country's first general election since Hamas's October 7, 2023, terrorist attack.

The outcome could determine whether Bibi, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, extends his political career or loses power after three years of war and domestic turmoil.The final opinion polls suggest a close contest. Surveys published by Israel's three major television networks on Friday put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud. Yet neither the prime minister's coalition nor the main opposition bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.Yashar was projected to win around 22-23 seats, against 19-21 for Likud.

Netanyahu's coalition was projected at about 50 seats, while the main opposition bloc was estimated at 52-56. Arab-led parties could win another 14-16 seats.These are projections, not results. But they point to the central question of the election: can Netanyahu survive the verdict on his leadership and can his opponents agree on an alternative?The challenger: Gadi EisenkotEisenkot, a former chief of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), has emerged as Netanyahu's principal challenger.

He served as military chief from 2015 to 2019 and joined the wartime government formed after the October 7 attack.He left the government in June 2024, arguing that political considerations were influencing decisions on the war. He subsequently broke with Benny Gantz and established Yashar in September 2025.Eisenkot's appeal rests on military experience, greater accountability and the argument that Israel needs a change of leadership without abandoning its security priorities.He is not a conventional left-wing challenger.

His criticism centres on Netanyahu's handling of the war, the failures that preceded October 7 and the government's domestic agenda. Like several other opposition figures, he takes a hard line on Hamas and argues that Israel needs more effective security leadership.This distinction matters. The election is not a straightforward contest between hawkish and dovish approaches. Many of Netanyahu's opponents argue that his decisions have weakened Israel's security rather than strengthened it.October 7 and accountabilityThe October 7 attack remains the defining test of Netanyahu's leadership.Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel and took 251 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

The attack exposed major failures in intelligence, military preparedness and the government's assessment of Hamas's intentions.Netanyahu has emphasised the military campaigns that followed, presenting his government as determined to dismantle Hamas and confront threats from Iran and its regional allies. His critics argue that the attack happened under his watch and that the government has yet to provide an adequate account of how Israel's security establishment failed to prevent it.Opposition parties and critics have demanded an independent state commission of inquiry.

Netanyahu has resisted such an investigation, which could scrutinise decisions taken by his government as well as the military and intelligence services.In recent weeks, reports said he had advance warning from the UAE and Egypt that Hamas was planning an attack. He calls the claims libellous and is taking legal action against the outlets that published them.His personal legal troubles add another layer.

Netanyahu is on trial on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, which he denies. In November 2025, he asked President Isaac Herzog for a pardon without admitting guilt, following public pressure from Trump. The trial remains a separate legal process.He is also subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza, which he rejects.For his supporters, Netanyahu remains an experienced leader facing extraordinary security challenges.

For his opponents, his political survival has become inseparable from questions of accountability.Dr Ashok Sharma, a visiting fellow at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, said the October 7 attacks had damaged Netanyahu's reputation as Israel's most experienced security-oriented leader. However, he cautioned against underestimating the prime minister's political resilience.“His supporters increasingly assess his leadership through Israel’s subsequent military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran,” Sharma said, adding that these operations had demonstrated Israel's military capabilities and determination to confront regional threats.For conservative and nationalist voters, he said, security remains a priority.

The election will test whether accountability for October 7 outweighs confidence in Netanyahu's ability to confront continuing threats.Iran war: Security asset or political liability?Security is Netanyahu's central campaign argument and Iran is where it has become most consequential.Israel and the United States launched military operations against Iran on February 28, targeting its nuclear and military infrastructure.The conflict widened into a regional confrontation before a Pakistan-mediated process produced a ceasefire arrangement and a memorandum of understanding in June.The pause has not resolved the underlying disputes.

Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz remain sources of tension, while pressure on Iranian ports and continuing regional uncertainty have kept the risk of renewed fighting alive.Netanyahu has presented the campaign against Iran as a strategic achievement, arguing that military action has weakened a major threat to Israel. He maintains that further action may be necessary to preven…