UP elections: Who will Owaisi-Azad alliance hurt most? Explained in 5 charts

NEW DELHI: Asaduddin Owaisi wanted a place in the INDIA bloc's fight against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Bihar rebuke and several olive branches later, he warned four months ago: "I have said this before, and I am saying it again: the Majlis does not want the BJP to form the government again in Uttar Pradesh. I am ready to join hands. I am ready to form an alliance. Today is the time to talk.

Don't cry later after the elections are over. We don't want the BJP to come to power again."But the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, who are yet to formalise their own seat-sharing plan, did not pay heed to him.Owaisi on Thursday joined hands with Chandrashekhar Azad to build an alternative political platform in Uttar Pradesh. This time, along with challenging the BJP, the AIMIM chief declared: "If we have to die for the cause of people, it's a good deal for us; Akhilesh Yadav won't be CM, engaged in politics of entitlement."The newly-formed Samajik Parivartan Morcha, with Azad as its chief ministerial face for the 2027 assembly elections, is seeking to mobilise Dalits, Muslims and backward communities under a common political platform.And the proposition is significant.

Muslims account for an estimated 19 per cent of UP's electorate, Dalits 21 per cent and OBCs around 41 per cent. The two communities at the heart of the new alliance, Muslims and Dalits, together constitute around 40 per cent of the electorate.But demographic arithmetic obviously does not automatically translate into votes.The Uttar Pradesh contest is already too crowded with the BJP, Samajwadi Party, BSP, Congress and even smaller caste-based parties within the NDA.

Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), too, is looking to expand its presence in UP ahead of the elections.So how will this new Owaisi-Azad alliance fit into the play?But first, let's rewind a bit.The Bihar deja vuIn Bihar, ahead of the 2025 assembly elections, Owaisi offered to contest just six seats as part of the RJD-led INDIA bloc. In September 2025, he had said that AIMIM's Bihar president Akhtarul Iman had written three letters, two to Lalu Prasad Yadav and one to Tejashwi Yadav, seeking an alliance."We are ready to take six seats.

You don't even have to give us a ministry if you come to power. Just set up a Seemanchal development board. What more can we do?" Owaisi had said.The RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan did not accommodate AIMIM despite Owaisi's offer to contest just six seats. The decision came despite AIMIM's five-seat breakthrough in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, when it won all its seats in Seemanchal.

Four of those five MLAs later defected to the RJD in 2022.We are ready to take six seats. You don't even have to give us a ministry if you come to power. Just set up a Seemanchal development board. What more can we do?But the party demonstrated that its support base had survived the defections. Contesting independently in 28 constituencies in 2025, AIMIM won five seats again, retaining all five constituencies it had won in 2020.

Its performance came as a setback to the Mahagathbandhan in Seemanchal, where the NDA won 14 of the region's 24 seats, while the Congress and RJD managed five between them.Cut to one year later, Owaisi once again expressed his willingness to work with Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, that too repeatedly. The SP, however, dismissed his public overtures as "public posturing", arguing that electoral alliances were not negotiated through public statements.The SP's reluctance to accommodate AIMIM has now resulted in Owaisi building a separate front with Azad.In an interview with The TOI ahead of the alliance announcement, Owaisi said the two parties were already "shortlisting the seats and discussing who will contest from where".

He also said the alliance would remain open to other parties and individuals.Now here's how the Owaisi-Azad alliance may make the parties feel its impact in upcoming elections:(function{function e{window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e});Samajwadi PartyThe SP, led by Akhilesh Yadav, may have the most immediate reason to worry.

Its PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy seeks to consolidate backward classes, Dalits and minorities into a broad electoral coalition against the BJP.The Owaisi-Azad alliance is also attempting to mobilise precisely these constituencies, but outside the INDIA bloc opposition framework.The Muslim vote is the most immediate point of vulnerability for Akhilesh. Muslims account for approximately 19 per cent of UP's population and have overwhelmingly backed the SP in recent elections as the principal party challenging the BJP.The constituency-level data shows that there are 143 assembly seats where Muslims have a significant electoral presence: 70 seats where their population share is estimated at 20-30 per cent and another 73 where it exceeds 30 per cent.The concentration is particularly important in Rohilkhand and the Upper Doab.

Constituencies such as Rampur Nagar, Chamrauwa, Moradabad Rural, Kundarki, Behat, Amroha, Sambhal, Suar, Moradabad Nagar and Najibabad have estimated Muslim population or voter shares ranging from around 45 per cent to over 60 per cent.This gives AIMIM a potential electoral geography.The analysis of 59 Muslim-dominated constituencies in the 2022 assembly elections offers another indication of the stakes.

The SP won 34 seats against the BJP's 22, but the BJP's vote share was marginally higher at 39.3 per cent, against the SP's 39.1 per cent.Owaisi has repeatedly questioned why Muslim voters should continue supporting parties that seek their votes but do not offer them an adequate share in political representation.This new alliance with Azad may give Owaisi a stronger political argument.

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