India's edible oil imports to rise as demand grows, oilseed yields face risks

New Delhi: India is likely to import more edible oil next year despite an increase in early oilseed plantings, as inadequate rainfall clouds the production outlook for key crops such as soybean and groundnut, while consumption continues to rise, three trade executives said.Imports are likely to rise about 3% to 17 million tonnes in the oil year starting November, according to industry estimates.

That would follow estimated imports of 16.5 million tonnes this oil year, and 16.01 million tonnes in 2024-25, they said.India annually consumes about 26 million tonnes of edible oil, which remains one of the largest agricultural import commodities for the country.“India needs an additional 8-10 lakh tonnes of edible oil every year to meet rising domestic demand. Producing this quantity would require an additional 25-30 lakh tonnes of oilseeds.

Despite an increase in acreage in just concluded kharif season, we expect yields to decline because of less rainfall. The outlook for the rabi season is also uncertain due to the potential impact of El Niño. Given these factors, we expect edible oil imports to increase,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director, The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), the apex body for the vegetable oil industry and solvent extraction trade.Import dependentIndia remains dependent on imports for around 60-65% of its edible oil requirements.

Total oilseed area is estimated at 19.66 million hectares as on 2 October, compared with 19.63 million hectares a year ago, according to the agriculture ministry data. "However, gains in acreage may not translate into a commensurate increase in domestic output, leaving supplies vulnerable to fluctuations in crop yields and weather conditions," said Mehta.Soybean, India’s largest oilseed crop, covered 12.3 million hectares, with acreage declining by 14,000 hectares.

Groundnut acreage, meanwhile, increased by 1,000 hectares to 5.1 million hectares. Among other oilseeds, sunflower recorded an increase of 59,000 hectares, taking its total area under cultivation to 129,000 hectares. Acreage trends for other crops, including sesamum and castorseed, also varied.According to experts, India's edible oil demand continues to climb, driven by population growth and rising income."India's edible oil consumption increased from 22.8 million tonnes in FY22 to an estimated 25.7 MMT in FY26, representing a steady ~3% CAGR, in line with the industry's long-term structural growth trend.

Consumption growth remains supported by favorable demographics and rising per-capita usage," said Rahul Guha, senior director, Crisil Ratings. Overall, India's edible oil consumption is projected to rise 3% to around 26.5 million tonnes in FY27, according to Crisil."Despite inflationary pressures and commodity price volatility, demand has remained resilient, driven by population growth, urbanization, changing dietary patterns, higher consumption of processed foods, and expansion of the food-service sector.

Consequently, the edible oil industry is expected to sustain stable volume growth of ~3% annually over the medium term, " Guha added.Production keyWith consumption continuing to expand, boosting domestic oilseed production will remain key to reducing import dependence and exposure to fluctuations in global prices. Initiatives such as the National Mission on Edible Oils are expected to gradually boost domestic production and support growing demand.India's per capita edible oil consumption is estimated at 17.6 kg in FY26.

While demand continues to rise, medical practitioners warn that excessive consumption can lead to health complications."While healthy fats play a crucial role in cell structure, hormone production, and nutrient absorption, exceeding the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) recommendation of 20 to 30 grams of visible oil per day poses significant long-term risks to gastrointestinal and overall metabolic health," said Dr.

Saurabh Bansal, a minimal access and gastrointestinal surgeon and founder-director of The Clinics and The Clinics Misc.